m/s
Figure 1. MDR wind shear along the current forecast
200–850 hPa shear averaged over the Main Development Region (10–20°N, 20–80°W),
at each step of the current 10-day run.
Data table
Source: this run of the Keisler-2022 GNN
m/s error
Figure 2. Does the instrument have skill?
Mean absolute error of this model's MDR-shear forecasts, scored against its own
later analyses, by lead time — compared with a "no-change" persistence forecast.
Source: season-long forecast/analysis pairs from this site's shear record
About this instrument
Global fields from a graph-neural-network weather model
(Keisler 2022)
run on open ECMWF analysis data, re-rendered every 12 hours.
Vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Main Development Region is the
primary environmental control El Niño exerts on hurricane season.
For the season-long study this instrument feeds, see the
season watch.
Experimental · 1° resolution · not an official forecast — consult the
NHC and
NWS for decisions.